Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.038375 2.438265 2.886965 3.426404 4.055937 4.765945 5.625886
2026-01-18 1.465982 1.973584 2.604755 3.441782 4.516485 5.843187 7.597301
2026-01-25 1.072196 1.595567 2.304855 3.324646 4.739177 6.615487 9.272663
2026-02-01 0.811405 1.318546 2.059265 3.200600 4.890406 7.270020 10.835797
2026-02-08 0.656845 1.153517 1.927992 3.194823 5.177599 8.114025 12.726321
2026-02-15 0.544565 1.026782 1.824752 3.201985 5.466617 8.972347 14.709613
2026-02-22 0.450032 0.907781 1.708883 3.162482 5.664115 9.696867 16.547215
2026-03-01 0.358203 0.772917 1.540103 3.002227 5.632450 10.041297 17.802313
2026-03-08 0.300852 0.690672 1.449259 2.960648 5.789561 10.698947 19.617541
2026-03-15 0.256856 0.625607 1.378476 2.942395 5.979931 11.423440 21.602969
2026-03-22 0.238936 0.612278 1.406362 3.115195 6.538939 12.841298 24.913807
2026-03-29 0.215605 0.581783 1.393535 3.203437 6.943800 14.014479 27.884063
2026-04-05 0.197916 0.561861 1.401930 3.340489 7.468136 15.472186 31.532036
2026-04-12 0.172888 0.518389 1.351128 3.344277 7.724013 16.446973 34.368091
2026-04-19 0.144276 0.458732 1.252381 3.226791 7.711307 16.895669 36.233996
2026-04-26 0.120202 0.405291 1.158509 3.105062 7.671814 17.281932 38.003725
2026-05-03 0.105455 0.374889 1.116522 3.099128 7.885401 18.200460 40.909646
2026-05-10 0.093279 0.349164 1.082014 3.105997 8.127624 19.198158 44.055591
2026-05-17 0.081035 0.319952 1.032668 3.067543 8.258156 19.966131 46.780698
2026-05-24 0.066681 0.279508 0.943870 2.911667 8.086462 20.054390 48.061608
2026-05-31 0.057953 0.256218 0.900461 2.871228 8.193478 20.772665 50.764257
2026-06-07 0.051003 0.237435 0.867071 2.853476 8.355270 21.628770 53.836857
2026-06-14 0.049303 0.238628 0.896804 3.021536 9.017841 23.705732 59.810292